Macroeconomic development

According to the IMF forecast, global economic growth is expected to remain stable at 3.3% in 2026 despite diverging forces. The negative impact of changing trade policies on economic development will be counterbalanced by positive factors, including increased investment in technology (such as artificial intelligence), financial support from the government and generally favourable financial conditions. Growth in industrialised countries is forecast to reach 1.8% in 2026. Growth in emerging and developing countries is expected to remain just above 4.0% in 2026. The latest forecasts indicate a 4.5% growth projection for China and a 6.4% growth projection for India. In comparison with other regions, the Eurozone is likely to experience a comparatively lower level of benefit from the recent surge in technology-driven investment. The ongoing effects of the rise in energy prices following the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine continue to have a negative impact on the industry, and are further exacerbated by the real appreciation of the euro against the currencies of similar exporting nations. The European Commission anticipates that real GDP will expand by 1.4% in the EU and 1.2% in the eurozone in 2026. It is anticipated that global inflation will decline to 3.8% by 2026.

Market	Economic growth in 2026	Key factors

Core markets
Germany	+1.1%	The economic and fiscal policy measures adopted by the federal government in 2025 (such as the special infrastructure and climate neutrality fund) are likely to provide noticeable growth impetus and contribute around two-thirds of a percentage point to GDP growth in 2026. The following factors are contributing to subdued structural growth prospects: demographic change, a shortage of skilled workers, bureaucratic burdens, a lack of digitalisation in public administration and high energy prices. As was the case in the previous year, growth in foreign trade is expected to be negative. In view of reduced demand from key sales markets outside Europe (e.g. USA, China) and the deterioration in the international competitive situation of German companies in the mechanical and plant engineering and automotive industries, the German economy is likely to lose global market share again, particularly to China, despite robust export growth in the EU domestic market. According to estimates provided by the Deutsche Bundesbank, inflation is projected to reach approximately 2.0% by 2026. The unemployment rate is forecast to fall slightly to 6.2% (2025: 6.3%).
Netherlands	+1.3%	It is important to note that economic growth is slowing down. This is because high wage increases of previous years have not been accompanied by production growth. At the same time, private consumption is expected to remain strong at +1.6%. Public investments in the areas of defence, energy transition and housing construction are likely to make a moderate contribution to growth. It is anticipated that the unemployment rate will rise to 4.1% (2025: 3.9%) due to slower employment growth and job losses. It is anticipated that inflation will decrease from 3.0% to 2.5% in 2026. However, it should be noted that the inflation rate in the Netherlands remains higher than that of the eurozone.
Switzerland	+1.1%	The trade policy outlook for 2026 has been revised to show a more positive outlook. Following successful negotiations in November 2025, US tariffs were reduced from 39% to 15%, aligning with the EU's tariffs. However, as the mutual declaration of intent does not constitute a legally binding agreement for the time being, uncertainty remains high. The Swiss franc continues to be highly valued, which means that foreign trade is only expected to provide a moderate boost to growth. Exports are expected to fall to 1.6% (2025: 2.1%). It is anticipated that the inflation rate will remain at a very low annual average of 0.2% in 2026. This will have a positive effect on real incomes and private consumption. It is anticipated that the unemployment rate will rise to 3.1% (2025: 2.8%) due to the expected below-average growth momentum.
Growth markets
Great Britain	+1.3%	It is anticipated that the prevailing uncertainty surrounding the domestic and international economic situation will have a detrimental effect on corporate investment. Despite a bilateral trade agreement, survey results on new export orders from the US in the manufacturing sector are weak and reflect the 7.0% increase in the overall effective tariff rate. The growth rate of exports is forecast to fall to 1.0% (2025: 3.0%). British employers are planning wage increases of between 3.0% and 3.5% in 2026. This should support consumption, one of the most important growth drivers, but at the same time create inflationary pressure. Overall inflation is expected to remain high at 2.5%. Fiscal policy continues to be a restrained one, given the elevated costs of government borrowing, escalating defence expenditure and a substantial, albeit diminishing, budget deficit and mounting government debt (104.2% of GDP after 101.6% in the prior year).
USA	+2.4%	It is estimated that growth in private consumption will slow from 2.5% to 2.0% in 2025, due to a combination of factors. These include a slowdown in employment growth and price increases resulting from tariff hikes, which will have a dampening effect on incomes. The "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is expected to provide a fiscal stimulus that should help to ensure that corporate investments, particularly in data centres, software, semiconductors, AI applications and energy infrastructure, continue to develop dynamically. Concurrently, productivity gains are becoming increasingly significant. It is anticipated that the unemployment rate will rise marginally from 4.2% in 2025 to 4.4% in 2026. The ongoing decline in employment growth will be balanced by a substantial decrease in net growth. The forecast high government deficit (125.2% of GDP) and the possibility of new trade or geopolitical tensions could have a negative impact on the US economy in 2026.
France	+1.0%	Domestic political uncertainty has been reduced for the time being by the adoption of the budget for 2026, and previously delayed consumption and investment decisions should improve growth prospects in 2026. It is anticipated that public debt will reach almost 120% of GDP by 2026 (in 2025, it was 116.6%). This will trigger further increases in interest payments and intensify fiscal consolidation pressure. The planned measures include higher taxes for large companies and top earners, spending cuts at all levels of government, reduced growth in healthcare spending and a freeze on pensions and social benefits. Despite an anticipated rise in inflation to 1.3%, private consumption is forecast to increase by 0.6%. It is estimated that the unemployment rate will increase to 8.0% in 2026 (2025: 7.6%), due to weaker employment growth, while the willingness to work remains high.
* IMF World Economic Outlook Update (January 2026), the European Commission's Economic Forecast for the Netherlands (17.11.2025) and the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) Economic Forecasts (15.12.2025).

According to the 100th EUROCONSTRUCT Summary Report, the construction industry is expected to see an improved outlook in the 19 EUROCONSTRUCT countries in 2025 (+0.3%), with accelerated growth in construction activity of 2.4% forecast for 2026. While new construction and civil engineering will drive the recovery, the renovation of buildings, particularly in the residential sector, is likely to lag behind. Current estimates indicate that total construction output will exceed the 2023 level by 2027, despite the possibility of an uneven recovery process.

Market	Development of the construction industry in 2026	Key factors

Core markets
Germany	+0.5%	The federal government's substantial special fund for infrastructure and climate neutrality, totalling EUR 500 billion, is expected to stimulate construction activity both directly and indirectly. The direct impact will be through the significant planned expenditure, particularly on infrastructure projects, while the indirect effect will be a noticeable economic upturn. New residential construction decreased by 42.0% between 2021 and 2025. A further decline is expected for 2026 (-3.5%), as the number of completions is falling and the volume of newly started construction projects is not sufficient to compensate for the decline. However, the growth rate for building permits in new residential construction rose by double digits (+13.9%) in the first 11 months of 2025 compared to the same period of the previous year, which should also have an impact on the volume of new construction in the future. Construction prices have also stabilised, and interest rate trends have largely calmed down. Following a period of decline that has lasted four years, the sector is set to see an increase in renovations to residential buildings of 1.0% in 2026. It is anticipated that price-adjusted new construction activity in non-residential building construction will experience a decline of 1.3% in 2026. Concurrently, construction output on existing buildings in this sector is projected to decrease by 0.9%. It is anticipated that the civil engineering sector will continue to experience significant growth, with projections indicating a real growth rate of 7.3% by 2026.
Netherlands	+2.8%	The draft budget for 2026 allocates approximately €900 million per year to facilitate the development of new residential construction projects until 2029. It is anticipated that the recovery in building permits and housing starts, as well as completions, will result in a 4.3% increase in new residential construction output by 2026. Following a period of decline, the construction of new non-residential buildings is projected to experience a moderate growth rebound in 2026, with an anticipated increase of +4.4%. The steady increase in the renovation sector and strong growth in office buildings, healthcare buildings and commercial properties will increase the overall market for non-residential construction by 2.7% in 2026. It is anticipated that the civil engineering sector will experience growth of 2.9% by 2026, driven by an upturn in residential and non-residential construction, which is expected to result in an increased demand for infrastructure.
Switzerland	+1.5%	It is anticipated that there will be a positive trend reversal in investment development in residential construction, with an estimated increase of 1.0% in 2026. This is expected to be driven by an upturn in multi-family house construction. However, the recovery process is expected to be gradual due to a limited supply of building plots, regulatory challenges and delays arising from objections. Investment in replacement and renovation is becoming increasingly important. The current financing conditions are favourable, but the weakening labour market could have a negative impact. In the coming years, the non-residential market is expected to experience growth, driven by investments in infrastructure for healthcare, social and educational purposes. This growth is projected to be supported by population growth and an ageing population structure. It is anticipated that this sector will increase by 1.7% in 2026. Civil engineering is set to play a pivotal role in stabilising the economy, with experts forecasting a continued expansion in the sector. This growth is projected to reach 2.1% in 2026, following a significant surge of 2.7% in 2025. This expansion is driven by the strategic investment in transport, energy, and telecommunications infrastructure by two major federal infrastructure funds, which aim to modernise and enhance the country's infrastructure.
Growth markets
Great Britain	+2.8%	Following the UK government's decision to prioritise housing construction, the private housing sector is projected to experience further growth, with an anticipated increase to 5.3% by 2026 (compared to 3.6% in 2025). However, the municipalities' capacity to invest in public housing construction is constrained by their substantial and expanding financial deficits. Overall, new residential property construction is therefore expected to increase by 5.0% in 2026. Non-residential construction is showing signs of continued moderate growth, with forecasts indicating a 2.2% rate. An increase of 2.3% can be attributed to new construction, while renovations are expected to rise by 2.1%. The double-digit percentage declines in commercial property and office buildings, which together with buildings for education account for the largest absolute share of new non-residential construction in the UK, are expected to reverse and grow at rates of 2.8% and 1.9% respectively by 2025.
USA	+1.0%	In 2026, residential construction is set to account for the largest share of total construction expenditure, with a projected growth of 0.7%. This growth is driven by an increase in renovations (+1.7%) and a stable interest rate environment. It is estimated that construction expenditure in non-residential construction will decline slightly by -0.5% in 2026. However, the construction of data centres is expected to grow by another estimated 23.0% compared to 2025, accounting for at least 6% of the total non-residential construction volume. From 2026, funding programmes such as the Federal Highway Administration's "Bridge Investment Program", with a budget of almost USD 5 billion in grants, will create significant growth prospects for infrastructure projects.
France	+2.1%	It is anticipated that the rise in building permits and housing starts in 2025 will be reflected in a 3.8% rise in residential construction activity in 2026. Government measures, including interest-free loans (PTZ) for new builds, are expected to support this growth, with an anticipated increase of +10.7% after a period of decline. Energy-efficient renovations, which account for around two thirds of total residential construction activity, continue to benefit from the "MaPrimeRénov" subsidy programme, although only weak growth of +0.5% is expected in this sector. It is anticipated that non-residential construction will experience stagnation, with a projected growth of +0.1% expected in 2026.
* 100th EUROCONSTRUCT Summary Report, Winter 2025, p. 40, and the 2026 North American Engineering and Construction Industry Overview, First Quarter Edition, p. 37