Download PDF

General economic conditions

According to the World Economic Outlook Update published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the OECD in January 2025, global economic growth in 2024 was 3.2%. The economic momentum recorded in the global economy in 2023 continued in the first quarter of 2024. While the IMF still expected growth of 3.1% in January 2024, the forecast was raised slightly to 3.2% in April and remained unchanged in the forecasts made in summer and autumn for global economic growth in 2024. In contrast, the IMF raised its forecast for the United States during the year and downgraded its forecast for other advanced economies, particularly the major European countries, including Germany. In the emerging and developing countries, production interruptions and faltering transport of raw materials (especially oil), conflicts, civil unrest and extreme weather events led to more negative assessments. Increased demand for semiconductors and electronics, fuelled by significant investments in artificial intelligence by emerging Asian countries, strengthened growth and offset corresponding downward corrections. Despite the different economic and income trends in the individual countries and sectors, the global economy remains robust. Declining inflation is having a positive effect on real incomes. However, the consumer climate in many countries is still weaker than before the pandemic.

Europe remains Uzin Utz's most important sales market, accounting for 82.0% of sales in 2024. According to the European Commission, the European Union achieved GDP growth of 0.9% in 2024. The euro area recorded growth of 0.8%. This means that the EU economy is returning to slight growth after a long period of stagnation.

MarketEconomic growth in 2024Key factors
Core markets
Germany-0,2 %
  • Despite rising real wages, consumers remained reluctant to spend in 2024.
  • The savings rate of German citizens has risen. It stood at 11.1% in the first half of 2024, a very high figure by both historical and international standards (e.g. USA: 4.7% in 2023) (Federal Statistical Office).
  • Construction investment (-3.5%) and investment in equipment such as machinery, appliances and vehicles continued to decline (-5.5%) according to the Federal Statistical Office.
  • Foreign trade developed sluggishly. Exports of goods and services fell by 0.8% (Federal Statistical Office).
  • Domestic economic conditions have continued to deteriorate (e.g. high energy costs, persistently high interest rates, a high level of bureaucracy and regulation, higher corporate taxation compared to other countries, an ageing population/lack of qualified specialists, sluggish progress in digitalisation and an uncertain economic outlook).
  • A new employment peak was reached (+0.2% according to the Federal Statistical Office), although the momentum came to a standstill at the end of the year.
  • Political instability due to the collapse of the federal government consisting of the SPD, Greens and FDP (Am-pel coalition) on 6 November 2024.
      
Netherlands+0,9 %
  • The Dutch economy cooled down.
  • Inflation is slowly declining, but remains high at 3.2% in 2024 according to the European Commission and OECD.
  • According to EUROCONSTRUCT, labour costs rose by 6.4%.
  • Following a decline in the first half of the year, private consumption recorded an increase in the second half of the year, which is attributable to strong real wage growth.
  • The unemployment rate remained stable at 3.7% according to the OECD. There are more vacancies than unemployed people.
  • Investment growth was recorded due to improved financing conditions and increasing public investment.
  • Regulatory pressure has increased.
      
Switzerland+0,9 %
  • Inflationary pressure continues to fall significantly. This is leading to the appreciation of the Swiss franc.
  • The Swiss National Bank (SNB) eased its monetary policy and lowered the key interest rate for the fourth time in 2024, to 0.5% in December (SNB).
  • The order situation is weak and industrial production capacities are underutilised.
  • Growth is being hampered by weak investment, while the pharmaceutical industry is providing impetus.
  • The export industry is suffering from a lack of foreign demand and the strong Swiss franc is holding back exports.
  • Both private consumption and public spending are supporting economic development.
  • The labour market developed solidly. According to the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO, the unemployment rate in 2024 is 2.4%.
  • Real wages are rising after two years of decline.
       
Growth markets
Great Britain+0,9 %
  • Measured by the consumer price index (CPI), the overall inflation rate fell to 1.7% in September 2024, the lowest level since April 2021 according to EURO-CONSTRUCT, driven by lower petrol prices and air fares.
  • For the first time since 2020, the Bank of England cut its base rate in August and November 2024 by 0.25 percentage points to 4.75% at the end of the year (CEIC Data).
  • The reduction in the base rate was influenced by the slowdown in inflation in the services sector and the fall in the global oil price.
  • The unemployment rate remains at a low level, but increased at the end of 2024 and rose to 4.2% in 2024 according to the OECD.
  • Wage growth is slowing, although domestic price pressure from wage increases remains.
  • There is still a shortage of skilled labour in certain occupational groups such as engineers and financial specialists.
     
USA+2,8 %
  • Private consumption continues to grow solidly (+ 2.7% in 2024 according to the OECD), partly due to real wage growth.
  • Investment has grown strongly in some sectors, supported by the new industrial policy measures enacted in recent years.
  • Inflation is also easing noticeably thanks to the fall in energy prices.
  • The combination of falling inflation and strong growth is due, among other things, to an increase in immigration and a rise in labour productivity.
  • The key interest rate was lowered for the first time in four years by the US Federal Reserve in September 2024, by 0.5 percentage points (LBBW).
  • The second and third interest rate cuts followed in November and December, each by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%, as a further reaction to declining inflation (LBBW).
  • The US economy is close to full employment, with a low unemployment rate of 4.0% according to the OECD.
  • The large current account deficit in the face of a strong dollar partly reflects strong domestic demand.
       
France+1,1 %
  • Economic development remains sluggish, particularly due to the significant decline in investment.
  • The rise in interest rates in recent years is having a negative impact on corporate investment in particular (-0.6% in 2024 according to EUROCONSTRUCT).
  • Overall weak private consumption in 2024 (+0.8% according to the OECD) benefited temporarily in the third quarter from an increase due to the Olympic Games.
  • Foreign demand is the main driver of GDP for the second year in a row, with continued public spending also supporting growth.
  • On 4 December, after three months in office, the head of government Barnier was ousted by a vote of no confidence in the French National Assembly. The political instability is paralysing Europe and its second-largest economy.
  • The unemployment rate rose from 7.3% in 2023 to 7.4% (OECD) and remained at a consistently high level.
     
* Economic growth according to IMF, World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025 and State Secretariat for Economic Affairs SECO, Economic Forecasts, 17 December 2024